The top of the hottest Tianjiao in the medium term

2022-08-06
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The seasonal decline in the top of Tianjiao in the medium term will continue

★ the weather in Thailand is getting better, and the pressure in the peak supply season is gradually showing

★ the rising trend of the yen in the medium term remains unchanged, which has become the main factor affecting Tianjiao in the short term

★ there are signs of the peak of crude oil in the medium term, and the indirect support for Tianjiao is weakening

★ the fund has a strong desire to close positions, and the action force on the Japanese glue is weakened

★ the top of Tianjiao in the medium term appears, The decline will continue

the technical aspect shows that the K-line trend chart of

Tianjiao 0803 has appeared at the top of Tianjiao in the medium term. (source: CSC futures)

tianjiao prices reversed in November. On the one hand, with the gradual improvement of the weather in Thailand, the supply of natural rubber in Thailand began to return to normal. After Southeast Asia entered the peak season of rubber production, the supply pressure was also increasing; On the other hand, influenced by the U.S. subprime debt crisis and the expectation of the U.S. interest rate cut, the pressure on the unwinding of the yen arbitrage position is increasing day by day. The weakening of the U.S. dollar has further accelerated the upward trend of the yen, which has put obvious pressure on the dumbbell shaped samples of Japanese rubber structures I, II and III. In this context, the long positions of Japanese rubber market funds continue to reduce their long positions by taking advantage of the rebound of futures prices, showing their strong desire to leave the market. Japan rubber lost the impetus of fund buying, and the trend became weaker. The crude oil price may step into a deep correction after several unsuccessful impacts on US $100, which will put new pressure on Tianjiao. Technically, the island shaped reversal of the diamond shaped top of Tianjiao in mid November further demonstrates that the mid-term rebound of Tianjiao has ended. Under the seasonal pressure of increasing supply of Tianjiao in Southeast Asia, Tianjiao is expected to continue its downward pace

the weather in Thailand is getting better, and the pressure in peak supply season is becoming more and more obvious.

after getting rid of the continuous rainy weather last month, the supply of natural rubber in Thailand began to gradually return to normal, and the period and spot prices of natural rubber in Thailand continued to decline, which had an important impact on the decline of global natural rubber prices

trend chart of the futures price of No. 3 piece of rubber in Thailand agricultural products exchange in November. (source: CSC futures)

since November, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have entered the traditional peak season of natural rubber supply. As the weather has remained normal recently, it can be predicted that the pressure on natural rubber supply will gradually increase

trend chart of total monthly output of natural rubber in Thailand, India and Malaysia. (source: CSC futures)

the mid-term rising trend of the yen remains unchanged and has become the main factor affecting Japanese gum in the short term.

a significant feature of the trend of Japanese gum since November is that the impact of the yen is much greater than that of the crude oil price. With the deepening of the impact of the U.S. subprime debt crisis on the U.S. economy, the market's expectation of another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has further increased. The dollar index has continued to weaken and hit a new low, while the yen has continued to rise under the promotion of interest rate arbitrage liquidation, which has a great negative impact on the price of Japanese gum. The author believes that this impact is still expected to continue

relationship between Tokyo rubber and Japanese yen. (source: CSC futures)

crude oil shows signs of peaking in the medium term, and the indirect support for Tianjiao weakens.

with the crude oil price hitting the integer level of $100/barrel for several times, the fund's desire for profit taking has increased significantly. The total position of NYMEX crude oil futures continues to decrease after the crude oil price exceeds $90, and the driving force of oil price rise gradually weakens with the exit of the fund. At the end of the month, the crude oil price fell back to below $90, indicating that the crude oil price has entered a deep adjustment. If the short-term crude oil price fails to achieve a breakthrough of $100, it will exert new pressure on the price of natural rubber

nymex crude oil total position trend chart specific analysis and elimination. (source: CSC futures)

the desire of fund bulls to close their positions is strong, and the action power of Japanese glue is weakened.

the continuous sharp rise in the price of Tianjiao in the early stage is also closely related to the continuous buying of fund bulls. The net long position of Tokyo rubber market fund once exceeded the level of 20000 hands, almost reaching the high level when the global rubber shortage occurred in 2005. However, this year, after all, the global supply and demand pattern of Tianjiao is still in a state of surplus, and the fundamental conditions for Tianjiao price to form a bull market are not available. Therefore, as the market surrounding conditions gradually turn from positive to negative, the fund's attitude of closing long positions also appears very determined. Even in the rebound of Tianjiao at the end of the month, we still see that the fund is continuously reducing long positions, This reflects the strong desire of the fund to leave. Without the long-term promotion of the fund, the upward momentum of Japanese rubber will weaken in the future

trend chart of Tokyo rubber price and fund net position. (source: CSC futures)

the mid-term top of Tianjiao appears, and the decline will continue.

from a technical point of view, the main contract of Shanghai Jiao formed a relatively obvious diamond top in early November, and the downward gap on November 12 once again formed an island reversal trend. Although there was a strong rebound at the end of the month, it still could not fill the breakthrough gap on November 12. Therefore, the number of samples of reinforcement varies according to their supply situation. From the technical point of view, the medium-term decline of Shanghai rubber has been formed. Although there will be favorable support in the future, such as domestic rubber entering the cut-off period, the arrival of the peak supply season in Southeast Asia will still bring pressure to the global natural rubber price. Under this big bad background, the short-term strength of domestic natural rubber price is difficult to sustain. It is expected that in December, Shanghai Jiaotong will continue to show a shock downward trend, and the possibility of rapid decline will not be ruled out after the loss of the 20000 yuan pass

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